^ƵŵŵĂƌLJ ĞƐĐƌŝƉƚŝŽŶ͗ $ FULWLFDO H[SHULPHQW ZDV GHYHORSHG IRU FRQGXFWLQJ WKH ZRUOG¶V ILUVW LQ FRUH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI LUUDGLDWLRQ DVVLVWHG VWUHVV FRUURVL RQ FUDFNLQJ ,$6&& XQGHU F\FOLF ORDGLQJ DQG HOHFWURFKHPLFDO FRQWURO WR SURYLGH UHOLDEOH H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD DOORZ LQJ IRU H[DPLQLQJ WKH YDOLGLW\ RI YDULRXV K\SRWKHVHV DQG GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH HIILFDF\ RI VRPHWKLQJ SUHYLRXVO\ XQWULHG UHJDUGLQJ ,$6&& 7R FRQGXFW W KH ZRUOG¶V PRVW FKDOOHQJLQJ DQG GHPDQGLQJ H[SHULPHQWV LQ PDWHULDOV FRUURVLRQ VFLHQFH DQG HQJLQHHULQJ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO LUUDGLDWLRQ DVVHPEO\ DQG DVVRFLDWHG UHPRWH VHQVLQJ LQVWUXPHQWDWLRQ ZHUH GHVLJQHG IRU LQ VLWX DQG RSHUDQGR PRQLWRULQJ RI HOHFWURFKHPLFDOO\ FRQWUROOHG ,$6&& LQ F\FOLFDOO\ ORDGHG VSHFLPHQV XQGHU WKH LQIOXHQFH RI KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH ZDWHU XS WR & 03D DQG UDGLDWLRQ LQ WKH 8 6 'HSDUWPHQW RI (QHUJ\¶V +LJK )OX[ ,VRWRSH 5HDFWRU +),5 ZKLFK SURYLGHV RQH RI WKH KLJKHVW VWHDG\ VWDWH QHXWURQ IOX[HV RI DQ\ UHVHDUFK UHDFWRU LQ WKH ZRUOG ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH KHUH WKDW GXULQJ WKH H[SHULPHQW SUHFUDFNHG VSHFLPHQV FRXOG EH FKDUJHG ZLWK K\GURJHQ DW DQ\ VSHFLILF FUDFN JURZWK UDWH PHDVXUHG LQ VLWX ZLWK WKH ZRUOG¶V KLJKHVW DYHUDJH FUDFN H[WHQVLRQ UHVROXWLRQ RI DERXW QP DOORZLQJ WKH XV H RI ² IRU WKH ILUVW WLPH LQ KLJK WHPSHUDWXUH ZDWHU ² DQ H[SHULPHQWDO PHWKRG GHYHORSHG IRU TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ GHILQLQJ WKH H[WHQW RI K\GURJHQ LQGXFHG FUDFNLQJ DQG VWUHVV DVVLVWHG GLVVROXWLRQ LQ FRUURVLRQ IDWLJXH FUDFN JURZWK
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
hprjorelq +e frqvlvwv ri irxu surwhlq vxxqlwv hdfk frqwdlqlqlqjj d khphh prlhw \ dqg lv wkh uhg sljphqWhgg surwhlq oorfdwhg lq wkh hu \ wkurf \ whv,wv PDLQ IXQFWLRQ LV WUDQVSRUW R [\ JHQ DQG FDUERQ GLR [LGH LQ LORRG(DFK +E) prohfxoh lv deoh wr elqg irxu r [\ jhq prohfxohv +e frqvlvwv ri d ydulhw \ ri vxiudfwlrqv dqg ghulydwlyhv $ prqj wklv khwhurjhqhrxv khwhurjhqhrxv jurxs ri khprjorelqv +e $ f lv rqh rqh ri wkh jo \ fdwhg khprjorelqv d vxiudfwlrq iruphg e \ wkh dwdfkfkfhqw ri iruphg lq wzr vwhsv e \ wkh qrqhq] \ pdwlf uhdfwlrrq ri joxfrvh zlwk wkh zlwk wkh1ȧwhuplqdodplqdo dplqr jurxs ri ri wkh ri wkh fkdlq ri qrupdo dgxow +e e +e e +e $ e $ 7KH vwhs lv uhuvleooh dqg \ lhogv odeloh +e $ f 7klv lv uhduudqjhg wr wr irup vwdeoh +e $ f lq d vhfrqg uhdfwlrrq vhrrq vwhs ,q wkh hu \ wkurf \ who wkh lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh dyhudjh frqfhqwudwlrq ri joxfrvh lq wkh eorg 7kh frqyhuvlrq wr vdeoh +e $ f lvlplwhg e \ wkh hu \ wkurf \ who·v olih vsdq ri dssur [lpdwho \ wrâgd\ wâgd\ v $ v $ v $ v d uhvxow eorrg joxfrvh ohyho gxulqj wkh suhfhglqj wr - prqwkv +e $ f lv wkxv wkxv vxlwdeoh wr prqlwru oorqj gldehwhv phooolwxv *oxfrvh ohyhov forvhu wr wrph ri wkh dvvd \ kdyh d juhdwhu lqioxhqfh rq wkh +e $ f ohyho div div>
$,6 WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO:RUNVKRS RQ $UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH DQG 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ IRU 6FLHQWLILF $SSOLFDWLRQV +HOG LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK 6& 1RYHPEHU,W LV RXU JUHDW SOHDVXUH WR ZHOFRPH \RX WR $,6¶ WKH WK,QWHUQDWLRQDO:RUNVKRS RQ $UWLILFLDO,QWHOOLJHQFH DQG 0DFKLQH /HDUQLQJ IRU 6FLHQWLILF $SSOLFDWLRQV $UWLILFLDO LQWHOOLJHQFH $,DQG PDFKLQH OHDUQLQJ 0/ DUH WUDQVIRUPDWLYH WHFKQRORJLHV WKDW KDYH UHYROXWLRQL]HG WKH ODQGVFDSH RI DOJRULWKPV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV DQG DSSOLFDWLRQV DFURVV YDULRXV ILHOGV 7KH FRQFHSW RI ³$,IRU 6FLHQFH´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写 EULQJ WRJHWKHU UHVHDUFKHUV IURP DFDGHPLD LQGXVWU\ DQG JRYHUQPHQW DXWKRULWLHV 写 FROODERUDWH RQ YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI $,0/ LQ VFLHQWLILF DSSOLFDWLRQV 2QH RI WKH SULPDU\ JRDOV LV 写 IRVWHU PHDQLQJIXO LQWHUDFWLRQ DPRQJ WKHVH VWDNHKROGHUV HQDEOLQJ WKHP 写 VKDUH UHFHQW DGYDQFHV LQ DSSO\LQJ $,0/ 写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¶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¶V SURJUDP :H KRSH WKLV ZRUNVKRS IRVWHUV PHDQLQJIXO FROODERUDWLRQ DQG LGHD VKDULQJ DPRQJ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV IURPH DOVR ZDQW WR WKDQN WKH 3URJUDP &RPPLWWHH PHPEHUV IRU WKHLU GLOLJHQW UHYLHZV LQVLJKWIXO IHHGEDFN DQG DVVLVWDQFH LQ VKDSLQJ WKH ZRUNVKRS¶V SURJUDP :H KRSH WKLV ZRUNVKRS IRVWHUV PHDQLQJIXO FROODERUDWLRQ DQG LGHD VKDULQJ DPRQJ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV IURPH DOVR ZDQW WR WKDQN WKH 3URJUDP &RPPLWWHH PHPEHUV IRU WKHLU GLOLJHQW UHYLHZV LQVLJKWIXO IHHGEDFN DQG DVVLVWDQFH LQ VKDSLQJ WKH ZRUNVKRS¶V SURJUDP :H KRSH WKLV ZRUNVKRS IRVWHUV PHDQLQJIXO FROODERUDWLRQ DQG LGHD VKDULQJ DPRQJ UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV IURP
