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化肥供应紧缩导致全球农业经济紧张
RaboResearch 在其最新评估中表示，截至 2026 年第一季度，该行业供应紧张，价格大幅上涨，关键营养素的波动性加大
来源:The Hindu Business Line _经济Global fertilizer markets are under severe strain following geopolitical disruptions, raising concerns over farm economics, crop output and food price stability, according to a new report by RaboResearch.
In its latest assessment released on April 8, the research arm, a unit of Rabobank, said the sector ended the first quarter of 2026 with tight availability, sharply higher prices and elevated volatility across key nutrients. Escalating tensions in West Asia and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed a substantial volume of fertilizers and critical inputs from global trade, triggering a supply shock that cannot be quickly replaced.
Fertilizer affordability has deteriorated sharply, with nitrogen and phosphate prices rising much faster than agri-commodities, compressing farm margins. “Our fertilizer affordability index has moved decisively into negative territory and is expected to remain constrained throughout 2026,” said Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs with RaboResearch.他警告说，随着农民降低施用量、推迟购买或改变作物选择，这可能会导致“需求破坏”。
印度的补贴问题
对于印度来说，鉴于其严重依赖进口，尤其是磷酸盐和钾肥，其影响尤为重大。 Higher global prices could increase subsidy burdens for the government and strain farm profitability, even as policymakers attempt to shield farmers from price shocks.
氮肥市场预计将在 2026 年出现需求降幅最大的市场之一，而磷酸盐市场仍面临压力。钾肥相对平衡，但可能面临间接需求疲软。保护主义贸易措施也限制了替代采购，加剧了供应紧张。即使地缘政治紧张局势有所缓解，正常化预计也会缓慢，价格上涨可能会持续到 2027 年。
小麦受到威胁
发布于 2026 年 4 月 15 日