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市场正在意识到特朗普的篡改：经济学家
There is a “dangerously circular” dynamic at play that is causing President Donald Trump’s Iran War to last far longer than anyone — including the president — has suggested, and it involves oil.The Atlantic‘s Rogé Karma argues that when the price of oil gets too high, Trump declares the war is near an end, and the price then drops, reducing the pressure on Trump to end the war sooner.Karma calls it “the TACO equilibrium.” Pointing to an “underlying belief,” Karma writes that “Trump will inevitably back down once the economic pain gets high enough. This is the so-called TACO theory of Trump’s decision making, as in ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.'”“The market has correctly realized there’s an audience of one who will determine the outcome of this, and that’s Trump,” Arnab Datta, a managing director at the think tank Employ America, told Karma. “Among traders, the assumption is that the pain can only get so high before Trump retreats.”“That logic turns out to be dangerously circular,” Karma posits. “Prices are low because investors expect Trump to end the war before prices get too high; but because prices are low, Trump faces less pressure to end the war.”“Prices rise, Trump talks about a deal, prices fall, and then Trump suddenly feels like he doesn’t actually need to make the deal,” oil-markets analyst Rory Johnston told Karma.Trump “seems to have figured out that he can calm the oil markets simply by gesturing at the prospect of a peace deal every so often,” Karma解释说。 “的
来源:Alternet _经济有一种“危险的循环”动力在起作用，导致唐纳德·特朗普总统的伊朗战争持续的时间比任何人（包括总统）所暗示的要长得多，而且它涉及石油。
《大西洋月刊》的Rogé Karma认为，当石油价格过高时，特朗普就宣布战争即将结束，然后油价就会下跌，从而减轻了特朗普尽快结束战争的压力。
Karma 将其称为“TACO 均衡”。
Karma 指出了一个“基本信念”，写道“一旦经济痛苦变得足够严重，特朗普将不可避免地让步。这就是特朗普决策的所谓 TACO 理论，就像《特朗普总是胆怯》中那样。”
“市场已经正确地认识到，有一群人将决定这件事的结果，那就是特朗普，”智囊团“雇佣美国”(Employ America) 董事总经理阿纳布·达塔 (Arnab Datta) 告诉 Karma。 “交易员们的假设是，在特朗普撤退之前，痛苦只会变得如此之大。”
“事实证明这种逻辑是危险的循环，”Karma 假设。 “价格较低，是因为投资者预计特朗普会在价格过高之前结束战争；但由于价格较低，特朗普面临的结束战争的压力较小。”
“价格上涨，特朗普谈论达成协议，价格下跌，然后特朗普突然觉得他实际上不需要达成协议，”石油市场分析师罗里·约翰斯顿告诉 Karma。
特朗普“似乎已经发现，他只需时不时地暗示和平协议的前景就可以安抚石油市场，”卡玛解释道。 “当然，和平协议或新的停火协议仍可能随时宣布。但特朗普与市场之间的动态——称之为 TACO 均衡——使得战争持续的时间比几乎任何人预期的都要长。”
这里是 TACO 理论的先例：特朗普的 2025 年“解放日”关税，总统在关税开始生效几小时后最初做出了让步。
但就目前而言，Karma 总结道：“TACO 均衡仍然保持不变。”