外国干预如何将马里推向崩溃的边缘

On Saturday, April 25 2026, two Malian opposition groups executed coordinated attacks across the African nation. They managed to kill the defence minister, Sadio Camara, and imposed a crushing siege on the capital, Bamako. Worryingly for Mali, this is the first time Jamaʿat Nuṣrat al-Islām wa-l Muslimīn (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA)— the two main armed opposition groups — have joined forces.

This is indeed a strange pairing, as JNIM is an al-Qaeda-linked jihadi group intent on spreading its hardline conservative Islamist vision across the Sahara and Sahel. JNIM came out of a merger of four al-Qaeda-allied groups: Ansar Dine, AQIM, Katina Macina, and al-Mourabitoun. The FLA is a Tuareg self-determination movement based in north Mali.

The FLA has existed in some form since the 1900s, advocating for an independent Tuareg state. The Tuareg are a nomadic Amazigh group Indigenous to the Sahara and Sahel. The FLA’s predecessors rebelled twice against the Malian government, in the 1960s and 1990s,failing both times.

JNIM and the FLA had been at each other’s throats for several years due to their diverging ideologies. JNIM uses extreme violence, hoping to establish a Salafi Caliphate, while the FLA seeks to establish a legitimate independent state. They only joined forces because the Malian government is weak and in disarray. Their joint rebellion will likely last until one group sees the other as a bigger threat than the government.

Corruption Corrodes

This most recent uprising dates back to March 2012,when, after two decades of inept and corrupt civilian leadership, the country saw its third military coup in 52 years of independence. The coup came amidst economic disarray and Tuareg and Islamist fighters capturing northern territory.

The Empire Returns

A Familiar Pattern

The French, just like the Soviets in Afghanistan, only had control of the urban areas, and not the rural areas where the jihadis were. Just like all the others, France faced a humiliating retreat.