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成本推动冲击有多大？ 3 月份 WTI 价格为 91.38 美元
确实，石油的实际价格低于过去几次油价上涨的情况。此外，与之前的油价上涨时期相比，石油消费在美国国内生产总值中所占的比例较小。然而，如果有人想讨论“冲击”，部分人会想要石油的意外或不可预测的成分[...]
来源:经济浏览器It’s true that the real price of oil is lower than in past episodes of oil price jumps. Moreover oil consumption constitutes a smaller share of US GDP than in previous episodes of oil price jumps. However, if one wants to discuss “shocks”, in part one would want the surprise or non-predictable component of oil price use. Approximately (I think for oil), that’s the change in the oil share, as shown below.
Figure 1:Oil consumption to GDP ratio (blue, left scale), and change in ratio (brown, right scale). Consumption ratio calculated by multiplying consumption in bbl by WTI price/bbl, divided by nominal GDP. NBER defined peak-to-trough recessio dates shaded gray. Source: EIA, S&P Global, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The “shock” so defined is larger than the 2022 shock associated with the expansion of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and larger than the shock that took place early in the 2007-09 recession.
Note that the average WTI price in April was yet higher — at $100.32, and at $101.56 as of Monday.
What is true is that with a slight net export surplus in petroleum and petroleum products, we don’t suffer a terms of trade shock (as Europe and East Asia do). But that is a separate issue from a cost push shock.