出生率上升不再与经济繁荣挂钩

Fertility rates began falling in most of the world starting in the last century. By the 1970s, the U.S. had dipped under the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, a trend that has continued on a declining slope.

In her new working paper, “The Downside of Fertility,” Claudia Goldin, the Henry Lee Professor of Economics, takes a deeper dive into the cultural changes around gender that are driving down fertility rates.

The economic historian and 2023 Nobel laureate introduced a model in a previous publication that links low fertility rates to higher levels of friction between the sides around gender and generation. This paper, she said, tackles a seeming contradiction in the data.

Across the 18th and 19th centuries increases in the birth rate were seen during periods of prosperity or at the end of economic downturns, as evidenced by the post-World War II baby boom. However, since the later part of the 20th century, that link no longer holds true.

“One of the great demographic surprises” of this time, Goldin writes, “has been the negative relationship between per capita income levels and fertility.”

Although fertility rates fell earlier and faster in developed countries, defined by Goldin as members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, they have now gone down even in sub-Saharan Africa.

“The fertility decline is just about everywhere,” said Goldin, who is also the Lee and Ezpeleta Professor of Arts and Sciences.

The wealthier Middle Eastern countries had birth rates around six or seven children per woman, but the United Arab Emirates “has a birth rate now that is lower or about the same as baby-scarce Japan,” dipping “to about 1.2,” Goldin said, while the birth rate in Saudi Arabia is 2.3.