消費者物価（全国25年7月）－コアCPIは8月に3％割れ、年末には2％程度まで鈍化する見通し
根据消费者的价格指数，由内政和通讯部发布的消费者价格指数（8月22日），消费者价格（全国性食品），包括新鲜食品，以下是3月3日。 3.3％），比上个月的增加率下降了0.2点。结果超过了以前的市场预测（快速总数：3.0％，我们的预测也为3.0％）。 响应于日元强劲和原油价格较低，与上一年相比，电力和城市汽油价格变成了负数，从而降低了CORE CPI。 不包括新鲜食品和能源的整体（核心CPI）同比为3.4％（6月：同比同比的3.4％）（6月：6月：同比3.3％）。 Looking at the breakdown of core CPI, the rise rates for gasoline
Real nonsupervisory payrolls and income in danger of tariff-driven stagnation
- 由New Deal Democtatlet的新交易看一看平均工作和中产阶级美国人的“真实”购买力。7月的工作报告显示，非经验工人的平均每小时收入略低于0.3％（下图中的蓝色）。消费者通货膨胀（红色）上涨了0.2％，因此“实际”平均每小时收益上涨了0.1％。 The below graph is the monthly changes in each over the last 24 months, showing that nominal monthly wage gains have slowly decelerated from over 0.3% to about 0.25%, wh
貿易統計25年7月－貿易収支は事前予想を大きく下回ったが、関税引き上げの影響本格化はこれから
根据财政部在8月20日发布的贸易统计数据，2023年7月的贸易余额赤字为1176亿日元，大大低于以前的市场预测（Quick Tally：盈余：2131亿日元，我们的预测盈余为2923亿日元）。连续第三个月，出口量比上一年（6月：上一年享受0.5％）下降了2.6％，但进口量急剧下降到上一年的7.5％（6月：上一年0.3％），导致贸易余额提高了51.118亿日元。当我们将出口分解为数量和价格时，出口年度为1.2％（6月：同比为2.5％），出口价格同比为3.7％（6月：同比的2.9％），同比为4.0％（6月：6月：13.1％的价格），年份为13.0％，年份为11.0％（6月）年满（6月：11.3％）
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.5% year-over-year
This is something I check occasionally.The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.5% (+4.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2025 as compared with April 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 277.3 billion vehicle miles.The seasonally adjusted
Pricing In 'Recession Fear' - Goldman Says It's Harder To Find New Macro Tailwinds
“衰退恐惧”中的定价 - 高盛说，很难在近几个月来发现新的宏观后风枪萨克斯的观点是，市场可能会继续攀升“忧虑之墙”。但是，他们的基线预测仍然非常良性 - 2026年的增长恢复，而在接下来的一个月中，联邦政府稳步降低了政策率。整个资产之间的泡沫有很多，现货VIX接近一年中最低的水平。 But, as Goldman's Dominic Wilson highlights below, 3-month VIX futures remain above 20 and the high spread to spot VIX suggests that there may still be risk
您也溺水了吗？：蔬菜上涨了38.9％，咖啡上涨了25％，电力价格上涨的速度是迈克尔·斯奈德（Michael Snyder）通过经济崩溃博客对通货膨胀率的两倍，您是否因财务压力而感到胃部打结？如果是这样，您当然有很多公司。突然之间，每个人都在谈论生活成本，价格上涨了我们周围的两位数百分比。现在有很多人觉得他们在“溺水”，因为无论他们在那里尝试多么努力，都没有足够的钱。 Unfortunately, we are being warned to brace ourselves for even more inflation in the months ahead.When I heard that
Schedule for Week of August 17, 2025
本周的主要报道是7月的住房开始和现有房屋销售。共识的读数是34岁，高于33个。任何低于50的数字都表明，建筑商的销售条件比良好的销售条件差。 This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, down from 1.321 million SAAR in June.10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2025----- Wednesday,
'Economists just don't agree': CNBC host gets Trump trade chief to make stunning admission
彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统的最高贸易官员，他的大量不受欢迎的贸易战争和广泛的关税计划的建筑师承认，大多数经济学家不同意政府的立场，即关税实际上是“减税”。关税是税收税是由进口商对国家 /地区的税收征收的税收，通常是他们进入国家的成本，以及较高的费用来消费者的价格，而这些费用是通过价格上涨的价格。 While some businesses initially absorbed the added expense when President Trump’s tariffs began, July’s wholesale price
WTI Hovers Near 11-Week Lows After Surprise Crude Build, Production Pop
WTI Hovers Near 11-Week Lows After Surprise Crude Build, Production PopOil prices fell to a ten-week low early on Wednesday as another major forecasting agency warned global inventories are on the rise amid higher supply while a report showed an unexpected hike in U.S. inventories.In its monthly Oil
UK employers cut back on bonuses and hiring as economic slowdown hits jobs market
Unemployment remains steady but vacancy rates drop and pay growth slowsBusiness live – latest updatesAnalysis: this is a slowdown, not a collapseEmployers have cut annual pay increases and pared back hiring in recent months as the economic slowdown took its toll on the jobs market.Data from the Offi
Katowice Airport sets all-time passenger record in July 2025
Katowice Wojciech Korfanty International Airport welcomed 960,878 passengers in July 2025, a 13.4% rise year-on-year and the highest monthly total in its history, surpassing the previous record from August 2024. Regular flights (Wizz Air, Ryanair, LOT, Air Dolomiti/Lufthansa) carried 363,703 passeng
The Debt And Deficit Problem Isn't What You Think
The Debt And Deficit Problem Isn't What You ThinkAuthored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S. For example, here is a recent headline from CNBC:The article’s author suggests that U.S. federal
Judicial review for migrants detained on U.S. military bases
《华盛顿邮报》今天报道说，德克萨斯州埃尔帕索的美国陆军基地布利斯堡正在准备持有无证移民。 The Trump administration’s plan to install large-scale detention facilities on U.S. military bases is taking shape, with Fort Bliss preparing to detain at least 1,000 undocumented immigrants starting this month on the Mexican border, U.S. Immigration and
Air Serbia registers busiest day on record
新闻Flashair塞尔维亚在8月1日星期五在24小时内交出了21.600名乘客的新闻记录。同一天，贝尔格莱德机场还看到了其最大的飞机运输，总共处理了304架航班。 In a statement, Air Serbia’s CEO, Jiri Marek, said, “This year is already going down in the company’s history as the most successful, with monthly results exceeding expectations. On the day we set the record for the n
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
来自Cavallo等。 （2025年8月）：资料来源：Cavallo等。 （2025年8月2日）。一些与关税的影响一致的数据：图1：PCE-陶瓷缩放器（蓝色），PCE-Services Deflator（TAN），在日志2025M01中= 0来源：BEA。You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun series (light b
Ugly, Tailing 3Y Auction Sees Worst Foreign Demand Since 2023
Ugly, Tailing 3Y Auction Sees Worst Foreign Demand Since 2023One week after the Treasury's refunding announcement unveiled no major changes to the coupon auction schedule for the next few months, instead punting everything to Bills and leading to the following headline this morning:*US TREASURY TO A
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
来自Cavallo等。 （2025年8月）：资料来源：Cavallo等。 （2025年8月2日）。一些与关税的影响一致的数据：图1：PCE-陶瓷缩放器（蓝色），PCE-Services Deflator（TAN），在日志2025M01中= 0来源：BEA。 You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun series (ligh
Netanyahu Has Reportedly Opted For Permanent Military Occupation Of Gaza
内塔尼亚胡（Div> Netanyahu）选择了对加沙斯雷尔第12频道的永久军事占领，报道说，以色列政府已决定永久占领加沙地带。说：“如果我们现在不采取行动，人质将死于饥饿，加沙将保持在哈马斯的控制之下。”但是，最后几天已经看到有关地面行动的地位和未来的报道矛盾，被称为“吉迪恩的战车”。 What has become clear in the last week is that negotiations are off, as Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered an expanded ground incursion in central Gaza.With
