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调查的麻烦

The Trouble with Surveys

嘿,在将Redeye从FutureProof的科罗拉多州带回家之后,就回来了,然后将我的脚靠在我的下面。但是我想简要讨论明天发布密歇根大学(Umich)的长期通货膨胀期望。您可能知道我对通货膨胀期望和情感调查的想法。 ICYMI,通货膨胀期望是一个倒退……阅读更多帖子,首先出现了调查的麻烦。

美国,中国同意:“非常建设性”的谈判

US, China Agree: "Substantial Progress" On Trade Deal After "Very Constructive" 2 Days Of Negotiations

美国,中国同意:“非常建设性”的《谈判》 2天后,“实质性进步”:在美国代表团在贸易谈判中发表了建设性的评论,中国也做了同样的事情,通常是Bessent/Greer的碳副本,而Greer/Greer早些时候说过(偶然地):中国的Premier Premier Heeeng:On Chiner-Chiner-Chiner-son-Chiner-son-son-Chiner-son-son-son-so.s oon Chiner-u.s-son-u.s-su.s oon Cernon-usu.s-usu.s oon-in-ue。贸易谈判,双方都进行了深入的交流:贸易谈判是建设性的,使实质性进步:双

有见地的文章:最高法院(Livelaw.in)撤消军事佛罗伦萨夜莺的损害

An insightful article: Disservice to the military Florence Nightingale undone by the Supreme Court (LiveLaw.in)

门户网站Livelaw.In携带了一篇由Ananya Sharma和Roopan Atwal撰写的有见地的文章,对印度最高法院的最新判决,向该博客介绍的军事护理服务官员授予退伍军人福利。 The same can be accessed here and is reproduced below:Disserviceto the military Florence Nightingale undone by the Supreme CourtAnanya Sharmaand Roopan Atwal A SNAPSHOTA Division Benchof the Supreme Court c

贝尔格莱德机场城市铁路链接工作

Belgrade Airport city rail link work advances

新闻闪烁着将连接贝尔格莱德的中央火车站的铁路链接的建设,并按计划进行机场进展,并将在明年年底之前完成。 “这条铁路线上的建设进展得非常好。我们进行了现场访问,与工人互动,并彻底审查了成功实施如此规模的项目所必需的所有文档。我很高兴地宣布,所有计划中的建筑工作都按计划进行,并将在合同期内完成,并将在2026年的交通工具中完成。 Sofronijević说。她补充说:“铁路线将使从机场到城市进行十五分钟的旅程。我有信心,这将结束我们在机场所面临的问题 - 从不受管制的出租车司机到其他干扰,乘客可以确保乘客可以安全,迅速地,固定的固定的机场,以固定的山脉和新的机场,以供新的18.3. -kious

地中海东部的尾鞭蝎子的故事:塞浦路斯(Amblypygi:Charinidae)的Sarax Ioanniticus(Kritscher,1959年)的首次报道

The story of a Tailless Whip Scorpion in Eastern Mediterranean: First report of Sarax ioanniticus (Kritscher, 1959) in Cyprus (Amblypygi: Charinidae)

在地中海东部的守卫鞭子蝎子的故事:塞浦路斯(Amblypygi:Charinidae)的Sarax ioanniticus(Kritscher,1959年)的第一报道亚热带分布。尽管该小组于1990年首次在塞浦路斯岛上提到,但当时未提供具体的分类信息。通过文献综述,有针对性的现场调查和公民科学贡献的结合,我们证实了在塞浦路斯的Sarax Ioanniticus(Kritscher,1959年)的存在,代表了该岛上该物种的第一个记录记录。经过七年的专用搜索,在2023年收集了一个现场标本并确定了现场标本,从而确立了S. ioanniticus作为该岛动物区系的一部分。这一发现扩展了东地中海中已知

AI难以模仿历史语言

AI Struggles to Emulate Historical Language

A collaboration between researchers in the United States and Canada has found that large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT struggle to reproduce historical idioms without extensive pretraining – a costly and labor-intensive process that lies beyond the means of most academic or entertainment in

阿鲁拉的无脊椎动物:蝎子,蜘蛛,蜻蜓和蝴蝶(野外指南)

Invertebrates of AlUla: Scorpions, Spiders, Dragonflies and Butterflies (Field Guide)

deararachncoloke的朋友,分享我共同撰写的现场指南 - “阿鲁拉的无脊椎动物:蝎子,蜘蛛,蜻蜓和蝴蝶”(Fauna ofalula field指南系列的一部分) - 与Alula的皇家委员会(Arabial)一起以PDF的形式免费提供。 audience.You’ll also find many other publications and field guides from differentdisciplines available at the same link.While sometaxonomic updates are already underway—parti

“道路是灾难性的”:500名员工的首席执行官解释了为什么他起诉特朗普

'Path is catastrophic': CEO with 500 employees explains why he’s suing Trump

对唐纳德·特朗普总统的巨大新关税的批评 - 从自由主义经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)和罗伯特·赖希(Robert Reich)到已故经济学家米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的右翼学生 - 警告说,他们对企业和消费者都会很痛苦。在美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)的安德森·库珀(Anderson Cooper)主持的一个市政厅,参议员伯尼·桑德斯(I-Vermont)是一个自称为“民主社会主义者”的伯尼·桑德斯(I-Vermont),他说,如果他们“有选择地使用”但不是“任意使用”,他赞成一些关税。桑德斯(Sanders)描述了特朗普对关税的方法“绝对适得其反”。

国际货币基金组织警告特朗普关税将全球金融体系置于应变之下

IMF warns Trump tariffs are putting global financial system under strain

World body says ‘sharp repricing of risks’ possible amid growing concern over role of ‘nonbank’ lendersIMF warns of ‘major negative shock’ from Trump’s tariffsLabour must focus on risk to financial stability, not only tradeBusiness live – latest updatesThe global financial system is coming under inc

失业者的主张继续反映出缓慢扩大的经济

Jobless claims continue to reflect slowly expanding economy

- 在我处理今天早晨的3月CPI报告之前,我们首先更新失业者索赔。四个星期移动的平均值也为223,000,与上周不变。随着典型的一周延迟,持续的索赔下降了-43,000至18.5亿:按照往常,Yoy%的变化对于预测目的而言更为重要。 On that basis, initial claims were up 5.2%, the four week average up 3.5%, and continuing claims up 2.5%:I’ll dispense with the usual graph comparing with the unemployment rate since

在真实视频中暴露了小但重要的AI编辑

Exposing Small but Significant AI Edits in Real Video

In 2019, US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi was the subject of a targeted and pretty low-tech deepfake-style attack, when real video of her was edited to make her appear drunk – an unreal incident that was shared several million times before the truth about it came out (and, potentiall

照片:土耳其航空公司在Ohrid

PHOTOS: Turkish Airlines touches down in Ohrid

News Flashturkish Airlines昨天于3月27日在伊斯坦布尔和Ohrid之间开展业务,标志着六年来这两个城市之间的航班恢复。这项服务由马其顿政府补贴,每周将维持四次,目前预定在夏季737-800的夏季飞行中的56%,B737 MAX 8,空中客车A321上的14%,在A321上的14%,以及B737-900和8级的九架航班和A3​​20上的九个航班。 The welcome ceremony in Ohrid was attended by the Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, Deputy Prime Mini

加密基金经理:这是“人类历史上最大的套利”

Crypto Fund Manager: This Is The 'Single Largest Arbitrage In Human History'

Crypto Fund Manager: This Is The 'Single Largest Arbitrage In Human History'Investors from both traditional finance and the crypto world are increasingly aligning on the view that stablecoins represent one of the most significant business opportunities in a generation.Such is the belief of Kyle Sama

涉嫌comey的“蜜罐”对特朗普闻起来的性刺痛

An Alleged Comey 'Honeypot' Sex Sting Against Trump Smells Fishy

An Alleged Comey 'Honeypot' Sex Sting Against Trump Smells FishyAuthored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,Just eight days before the 2024 election, a lawyer claiming to represent an anonymous FBI whistleblower sent a politically explosive letter to Republicans on the House Judiciary Commit

罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer):“我们正在冷战,现在是第二次冷战”

Robert Lighthizer: "We're In A Cold War, A Second Cold War Now"

Robert Lighthizer: "We're In A Cold War, A Second Cold War Now" "A lot of us who were sort of united in this Cold War, particularly in the early years, it kind of brought the country together. We realized we were in a Cold War. Indeed, I think we're in a Cold War, a second Cold War now," former US T

#461 - PREPRIMEAGEN:编程,AI,ADHD,生产力,成瘾和上帝

#461 – ThePrimeagen: Programming, AI, ADHD, Productivity, Addiction, and God

ThePrimeagen (aka Michael Paulson) is a programmer who has educated, entertained, and inspired millions of people to build software and have fun doing it.Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep461-scSee below for timestamps, and to give feedback, submit q

催化变化:YIM 2025在Agra(第I部分)

Catalysing change: YIM 2025 in Agra (Part I)

The 17th edition of the annual Young Investigators’ Meeting(YIM 2025) took place in the historical city of Agra, Uttar Pradesh, from 3 to 7 March 2025. Around 80 young investigators, postdoctoral fellows, and representatives from funding agencies, mentors, and institutional representatives attended

[甲壳纲•2025] Geosesarma Bunian•在马来西亚北部北部的Geosesarma Foxi物种群(Brachyura:Sesarmidae)的新型吸血鬼螃蟹上

[Paleontology • 2019] Portugalosuchus azenhae • A New Eusuchian Crocodylomorph from the Cenomanian (Late Cretaceous) of Portugal reveals Novel Implications on the Origin of Crocodylia

Portugalosuchus azenhae Mateus, Puértolas-Pascual & Callapez, 2019DOI: doi.org/10.1093/zoolinnean/zly064AbstractThe fossil record of Eusuchia extends back to the Early Cretaceous (Barremian), with the English species Hylaeochampsa vectiana being the oldest known representative of the clade so far.然而