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As the renewable transition hits its teenage years, it's time to take stock of what has been accomplished so far: • “Clean tech” is outpacing fossil fuel investment even before new US/European energy bills • Global wind+solar generation exceeded nuclear for the first time in 2021 • The IEA projects peak global fossil fuel demand this decade even under its slower transition case • Projected renewable capacity additions of ~2,500 GW over the next five years would match the prior 20 • The pace of EV sales, residential heat pump adoption and US battery plant build-outs has increased • Hybrid solar-storage projects are becoming more competitive with gas peaker plants • China 2022 renewable capacity additions = US, Europe, India, Southeast Asia and Latin America combined • Economies of scale: as illustrated below, the IEA has consistently underestimated solar capacity additions

成长的痛苦:青春期的可再生过渡

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