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穆迪表示印度今年可以应对适度的财政下滑
新加坡穆迪高级副总裁克里斯蒂安·德古兹曼(Christian de Guzman)对新德里保守削减预算赤字的能力表示信心
来源:The Hindu Business Line _经济India can withstand a potentially wider-than-forecast fiscal deficit this year without jeopardizing its investment-grade rating, according to Moody’s Ratings, as higher energy prices are expected to pose only temporary budget pressures.
“We don’t see India as being particularly affected because this shock is largely negative for most sovereigns,” Christian de Guzman, Singapore-based senior vice president at Moody’s Ratings, said in an interview.
穆迪授予印度 Baa3 评级，这是最低的投资级别，前景稳定。德古兹曼表示，这一评估反映了自 Covid-19 大流行以来政府在修复财政方面取得的稳步进展。
Earlier this month, Bloomberg News reported that policymakers had been preparing for the fiscal deficit to widen by as much as 50 basis points to 4.8 per cent of gross domestic product in the current financial year-ending March 2027. De Guzman didn’t specify how much deterioration Moody’s would consider consistent with India’s current rating.
他对新德里保持保守路线减少预算赤字的能力充满信心。印度预计到 2027 年 3 月，这一差距将从 2021 财年创纪录的 9.2% 缩小至 4.3%。
由于中东冲突导致原油价格飙升，今年对印度财政前景的担忧加剧。油价上涨往往会扩大印度的进口费用，加剧通货膨胀并增加补贴压力，对经济增长和财政前景构成风险。
随着美伊和谈期间油价下跌，近几周情况有所改善。一些政策制定者越来越乐观地认为，中东局势的持续缓和可能会改善印度的前景。
Nagesh Kumar, an external member of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee, told Bloomberg in an interview last week that the economy could grow by more than 7 per cent this year if global crude prices remain around $70 a barrel.