9 月份美联储加息的可能性急剧转向加息

上个月已经是一次完整的往返了。

来源:MishTalk

It’s been a complete round trip in the last month.

9 月份利率预测来自 CME Fedwatch。

  • 今天:66.2%
  • 一周前:39.6%
  • 一个月前:67.0%
  • Welcome back to the reality that inflation is a problem.

    10 月 CME 概率

    Two Hike Odds (September and October)

  • 今天:19.1%
  • 一周前:9.7%
  • 一个月前:20.8%
  • 这是另一个往返。但我对此表示怀疑。

    An October 28 would be a hike would be just six days before the November 3 midterm elections.

    The Fed will not want to hike that close to the election.

    That fact was a key point in my assessment Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September

    美联储暂停政策的时间较长,原因有很多,而不仅仅是消费者物价指数 (CPI)。

    点击链接进一步讨论是什么束缚了美联储的手脚,迫使其加息。

    Also see my post from earlier today,Global Bond Market Rout Continues, Fed’s Barr Ponders Decisive Action

    现在一切都井井有条,准备九月的徒步旅行。

    这篇文章源自 MishTalk.Com