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2 月份工业生产再次增长，但自去年 7 月以来，前人工智能相关公用事业进展甚微
- by New Deal democratProbably my biggest theme right now is that most of the economy is either recessionary or at least on the cusp of recessionary.但这已被人工智能数据中心相关支出及其引发的股市繁荣和财富效应所抵消。 Last month I highlighted how that had shown up in the utilities portion of industrial production, which is extremely noisy month over month, but in the longer perspective was increasing much more than other production. There was more of both indications this month.Industrial production as a whole rounded up from +0.151% to 0.2% in February (blue in the graph below), and to a lesser extent so did manufacturing production, also up 0.2% (red). I also show production less utility production (gold), to show how that is in accord with both other metrics:Now let’s take a look at utilities production (orange) vs. industrial production less utilities (gold) since just before the pandemic:It’s easy to see how sharply utilities production has pulled away from everything else, albeit with a huge amount of month to month noise. This month’s -06% decline barely registers on the trend.Note that the significantly increasing trend from the middle of 2024 in industrial production is also apparent in the graph of durable goods orders (blue) and core capital goods orders (red) over the same time period:The front-loading of orders before “Liberation Day” last year is also apparent.Finally, I’ve noted a number of times
来源:The Bonddad 博客-新政民主党人
也许我现在最大的主题是，大部分经济要么陷入衰退，要么至少处于衰退的风口浪尖。但这已被人工智能数据中心相关支出及其引发的股市繁荣和财富效应所抵消。
上个月，我强调了这一点在工业生产的公用事业部分中的表现，该部分逐月极其嘈杂，但从长远来看，其增长远远超过其他生产。本月有更多这两种迹象。
2 月份工业生产整体从 +0.151% 上升至 0.2%（下图中的蓝色），制造业生产也略有上升，也增长了 0.2%（红色）。我还展示了生产减去公用事业生产（黄金），以显示它与其他两个指标的一致性：
现在让我们来看看大流行之前以来的公用事业生产（橙色）与工业生产减去公用事业（金色）：
很容易看出公用事业生产与其他一切的差距有多大，尽管每个月都有大量噪音。本月-06%的跌幅几乎没有体现出这一趋势。
请注意，从 2024 年中期开始，工业生产的显着增长趋势在同一时期的耐用品订单（蓝色）和核心资本货物订单（红色）图中也很明显：
去年“解放日”前的订单提前装载现象也很明显。
最后，我多次指出，自去年年中以来，大多数同步指标都陷入停滞，去年秋天政府关门期间可能出现了“小规模衰退”。下图展示了工业生产（不包括公用事业）如何融入其中（截至去年 7 月，所有系列均标准化为 100）：
前人工智能相关生产，就像实际销售（蓝色）和非农就业（红色），以及实际个人收入减去政府转移支付（未显示），在此后的八个月里几乎没有变化。