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Why goods-producing employment is not flashing a danger signal for an economic downturn
- 通过新的交易，民主党本周对新经济数据的干旱，让我们继续查看上周五就业报告中的一些重要信息。在每份报告中，我首先要查看数据中包含的主要指标，从而分解我的分析。这几乎完全局限于生产商品部门，尤其是制造和建设。那是因为货物部门比服务业更波动。 The former almost always turns down before the onset of a recession, while the latter in many cases sails right through.Specifically, let me show you the last 40+ years of the abs
Comments on June Employment Report
6月份就业报告中的标题工作编号超出了预期，四月和5月的薪水被合并为16,000。参与率降低，就业人口比率不变，失业率降低到4.1％。注意：据报道，据报道，6月（季节性调整后），州和地方政府的教育雇用率为63.5万。在未经季节性调整（NSA）的基础上，失去了542.4万个教育工作。每年六月发生这种情况。但是，今年的就业机会少于预期的，从而获得大量SA的收益。 It is possible this is just a timing issue and more than expected educators will be let go in July.Earlier: June Employm
A look at the goods producing sector
- 在就业报告后的一周内，由新的Democtatas按新的Democratas进行，直到周三的CPI报告才有新数据。因此，让我们进一步了解周五报告中的一些信息，以及上周的其他几份报告，这些信息是在货物生产和销售行业中。现在不那么少了，但是生产商品的工作通常仍然是第一个削弱的。在周五的报告中，生产就业机会下降了。 In the past year, only 39,000 such jobs have been added (blue, right scale below) in the entire economy, or only a 0.2% gain (red, left scale):
US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 Years
US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 YearsSince December's Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board's headline index has decelerated rapidly with April data released today plunging 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop sin
'Fundamental competence': Economy brings Trump’s 'political risks into focus' — here's how
The U.S. Commerce Department delivered some bad economic news on Wednesday, April 30: the United States' gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3 percent during the first three months of 2025.This was the first GDP report released during Donald Trump's second presidency, and it comes at a time
'Layoffs' and 'reduction of hours': LA port chief expects '35 percent' drop in shipping volume
Economists and businessowners are warning that President Donald Trump's steep new tariffs could not only lead to inflation, a recession, lower GDP, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar — they could also disrupt supply chains, causing empty shelves on retail shelves.According to MSNBC's Ana Cabrera, th
4月28日星期一，加拿大的联邦大选在很大程度上成为了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）陡峭的新关税的全民投票，并呼吁加拿大成为美国的一部分。自由党的成员马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）在一个积极的反特朗普平台上奔跑并赢得了胜利 - 击败了保守党领袖皮埃尔·波利夫（Pierre Poilievre）。尽管Poilievre试图使自己与特朗普主义保持距离，但卡尼被认为是两者中更反特朗普。卡尼在胜利演讲中宣布：“特朗普总统正试图打破我们，以使美国能够拥有我们。这将永远不会发生。” READ MORE: Nastiness 'doesn't travel well': Trump
UK economy faces growth shock from Trump tariffs, says Bank governor
Andrew Bailey says UK not close to recession but he would be ‘encouraged’ if trade deal with US were agreed The Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, has said the UK economy faces a “growth shock” as a result of Donald Trump’s trade policies.Speaking on the sidelines of the International Moneta
US stock markets rally as White House says there is ‘great optimism’ in the economy – as it happened
此博客现已关闭。 You can read our latest full report and explainer here:Trump insists tariff war is ‘doing really well’ as recession fears mountWhat are bonds and why have they spooked Donald Trump?The US dollar slumped on Friday as waning confidence in the US economy prompted investors to ditch US assets t
'Get over it': Wall Street kingpin brutally mocked for flip flop on key Trump policy
在1月22日在CNBC举行的一次亮相中，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）认为，关税可以用作“经济工具”，并告诉唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税提议“胜过”批评者“胜过”。 With the stock market plummeting, Dimon told investors, "Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a recession remains in question, but it will slow down growth."READ MORE: FDR's grandson issues new warning
'Not gonna happen!' Analysis exposes 'idiotic' fallacy of Trump’s tariff tax scheme
唐纳德·特朗普总统承认，他的急剧新关税将在美国带来一些经济痛苦，但他坚持认为，短期不适感会随之而来的是重大繁荣时期，并且在美国制造业中的复兴。特朗普也声称，由于削减了美国富裕的美国人的税收损失，关税的钱将取代任何联邦收入。 And he is describing Wednesday, April 2 — the day his new tariffs are scheduled to take effect — as "Liberation Day."But The New Republic's Timonthy Noah, in a biting article published on
Shares slide after President Donald Trump says new reciprocal tariffs expected this week will include all nations, and Goldman Sachs say US recession more likelyWall Street shrinks in response to price pressures, stoking fears of Trump tariffsSwiss bank UBS has cut its forecast for the US stock mark
'Even the rich are worried': Experts warn of 'scariest' signs amid 'stagflation' fears
警告信号在一周内闪烁着红色，令人不安的经济新闻显然变得严峻。 Consumers should brace for a surge in terms like “inflation,” “stagflation,” “Trumpflation,” and “recession” dominating the headlines.Reports are now showing consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in 12 years, the markets are currently tanking, analysts
Why Trump’s effect on retirement accounts are 'far more severe' than you realize: ex-Wall St. banker
div>在美国社会保障局（SSA）削减严厉的人与担心唐纳德·特朗普总统的经济政策（包括陡峭的新关税）将导致401k账户有价值，许多年长的美国人对他们退休的能力有主要的担忧。在《纽约时报》于3月24日发表的一本专栏文章中，帕克媒体和前华尔街银行家的创始合伙人威廉·D·科汉（William D. Cohan）警告说，在未来几个月中，他们的退休帐户可能处于非常糟糕的状态。” Cohan解释说。 "Investor confidence is rapidly dissipating. And changes in the way Wall Street works mean that the impa
Is Trump driving the US into a recession? – in charts
警告灯在经济指标的仪表板上闪烁，因为分析师对美国经济的“王牌”的表现感到震惊。 After outperforming its international peers last year, warning lights are flashing on a dashboard of economic indicators as analysts warn that Donald Trump’s erratic approach is hitting the world’s largest economy.Fears of a US recession this year are growing,
商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统陡峭的新关税的积极，有力的支持者，他坚决否认他们有可能使美国陷入衰退。卢特尼克（Lutnick）不仅为关税辩护 - 他促进了关税。即使道琼斯工业平均水平在3月中旬进行了重大暴跌，卢特尼克（Lutnick）坚持认为，关税在经济上对美国有益。特朗普的商务部长最近告诉NBC新闻：“唐纳德·特朗普正在将增长带到美国。我永远不会押注经济衰退。没有机会。” But according to CNN reporters Kayla Tausche and Jeremy Herb, Lutnick is f
'Protect yourself': Here's a survival guide for possible Trump recession
唐纳德·特朗普总统与加拿大，墨西哥，欧盟（EU）和其他美国盟友的贸易战正在担心投资者。道琼斯的工业平均水平一直在暴跌和加剧对可能的衰退的恐惧。新闻记者休·卡梅伦（Hugh Cameron）在新闻周刊发表的一篇文章中为可能的经济衰退提供了生存指南。新闻周刊采访的经济学家说，经济衰退是一种非常真实的可能性。读更多：'现代麦卡锡时刻：对特朗普的愤怒越来越多，trump Spectdiane swonk越来越多，这是kpmg的首席经济学家，又有很大的风险。纠正措施，但正在接近边缘。 Rosenberg told Newsweek, "It is next to impossible for the p
