B ACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 3 S TRUCTURAL DEFICITS DRIVEN BY PERFECT STORM , SUPPORTING STRONG PRICES ................................. 4 D EMAND : VERY STRONG GROWTH DRIVERS ...................................................................................... 5 F UNDAMENTALS DRIVING GLOBAL SUPPLY DECLINE ........................................................................... 8 I S SUPPLY TOO INELASTIC TO CLOSE THE GAP IN THE NEAR TERM ?..................................................... 11 P OTENTIAL SWING FACTORS OVER THE MEDIUM TERM ...................................................................... 11
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