Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June
With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment using smoothed population controls (orange), industrial production (red), pers
Yanis Varoufakis: The Economics of Europe’s Descent into Warmongering
导致欧洲看到巨额防御支出的漫长道路将是一条生命线，因此需要引起战争的发烧。
'Rising worry': Trump's trade war is increasingly jeopardizing a major campaign promise
尽管唐纳德·特朗普（Div>）在2024年对民主党总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的狭窄胜利远非远离他声称的“滑坡”，但他以大约1.5％的身份赢得了全国投票，他对通货膨胀的重视，经济使他越过了终点线。特朗普指责哈里斯（Harris）和当时的总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）的通货膨胀，他的消息传递工作：三个锈带国家（Rust Belt State）于2020年前往拜登（宾夕法尼亚州，密歇根州和威斯康星州）到达拜登（Biden），于2024年前往特朗普。但是，经济学家正在警告，但是，特朗普的陡峭关税可能会带来比贝德森时代更糟糕的通货膨胀。 And according to
‘On Hunger’ recasts hunger in history, industry
Dana Simmons wants you to know that if you are hungry, it is not your fault.In her recently released book, “On Hunger: Violence and Craving in America, from Starvation to Ozempic,” published by UC Press, Simmons challenges the idea that hunger is a natural result of scarcity as she explores patterns
法人企業統計25年1-3月期－利益、設備ともに堅調だが、4-6月期以降はトランプ関税の影響で悪化が不可避
根据财政部的公司统计数据，财政部在6月2日在6月2日在所有工业公司中运营了所有工业企业（所有工业公司），在3.8％的企业中，该年度为3.8％，均为3.8％。 （同比同比13.5％）十月至12月的期限，这是连续第二季度利润增长。与上一年相比，制造业的利润同比下降2.4％（同比为26.7％），这标志着两个季度的利润首次下降，而非制造业连续第17季度的利润增加了，比上一年的利润增加了7.0％（同比6.4％）。在制造业中，销售增长从2024年10月至12月同比增长到5.7％，但销售利润率的运营利率从同比的1月3月的8.4％加重到7.7％，这是收入下降压力的一个因素。当分解运营利润率与销售比率时，财务费
Schedule for Week of June 1, 2025
本周计划的关键报告是5月的就业报告。其他关键报告包括5月ISM制造，车辆销售和4月的贸易余额。-----6月2日，星期一------------10：00 AM：ISM Manufacturing Index 5月。共识是ISM为49.2，从4月10日上午10:00的48.7提高：4月的建筑支出。共识是建筑支出增加了0.4％。1：00 pm：演讲，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Fed Jerome Powell），开场讲话，在联邦储备委员会国际财政部75周年会议上，华盛顿特区。该图显示了作业开口（黑线），雇用（紫色），裁员，放电和其他（红色柱），并从震动中退出（浅蓝色柱）。 3月的就业机会从2月的
California's High Costs, Low Incentives Are Scaring Away Film & TV Producers, Report Says
加利福尼亚的高昂成本，低奖励措施正在吓走电影和电视制片人，较低的激励措施和复杂的州法规，加上高昂的住房和商业成本，使加利福尼亚州无法使好莱坞的生产迁移到其他州和国家的生产。该报告的作者说，在过去的两年中，由于其他州和国际目的地继续增加行业的激励措施，根据米尔肯学院金融公司的执行董事凯文·克洛登（Kevin Klowden）的说法，卢斯金大学（Luskin）公共事务学院的研究生助理玛德琳·沃杜普斯（Madeleine Waddoups）在加利福尼亚大学 - 洛斯（University of California）的行业方面也为国家提供了更多的经验。 boosted the fields of d
'Complete disregard for debt': Market analyst busts White House’s fiscal responsibility claims
Many economists were hoping that President Donald Trump would back down from the more severe tariffs he was threatening to impose on the United States' trading partners, but on Friday, May 23, Trump floated a 50 percent tariff on goods imported from countries in the European Union (EU) and a 25 perc
Schedule for Week of May 25, 2025
The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.----- Monday, May 26th -----All US markets will be closed in observance of
Trump announces Nippon Steel and US Steel partnership – as it happened
此博客现已关闭。 You can read our latest reporting here:Trump warms to Nippon Steel, backing ‘partnership’ with US SteelTrump says he is hitting EU with 50% tariff as trade talks are ‘going nowhere’Trump threatens 25% tariff on Apple and Samsung phones not made in USAs well as cutting UK energy costs (see e
Big Reset? Is UK About To Sign A Series Of Conflicting Bilateral Trade Deals
大重置？ Is UK About To Sign A Series Of Conflicting Bilateral Trade DealsBy Bas van Geffen, CFA, Senior Macro Strategist at RabobankPresident Trump has handed Putin a bit of a victory.在两个小时的电话中，两位领导人同意莫斯科将与基辅合作进行备忘录。但是，美国总统并没有对普京施加太大的压力，要求达成一项结束战争的协议。特朗普说，他将离开俄罗斯和乌克兰通过谈判来解决战争，从本质上讲是两国之间的调解人。然而，尽管特朗普较早受
US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 Years
US Leading Economic Indicators Tumble Most In Over 2 YearsSince December's Trump-optimism-driven surge in Leading Economic Indicators (the first since last February), The Conference Board's headline index has decelerated rapidly with April data released today plunging 1.0% MoM - the biggest drop sin
Industrial and manufacturing production suggest front-running production has peaked
- 新政民主人士今天的最终数据点是工业生产，包括其重要的制造部分。 Last month I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail sales numbers, were about front-running T—-p’s tariffs. Which means that like retail sales, production might have been […]The post Industrial and
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: April Manufacturing Production and Real Retail Sales Down
生产和销量低于M/M共识。 Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted smoothed population controls (bold orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), real retail sales (black), vehicle miles t
Trump Touts 1.4 Trillion Investment In AI, Tech From UAE In Final Mideast Stop
特朗普吹捧1.4万亿美元对AI的投资，阿联酋在最后的中东停车场中的技术，从特朗普访问沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔的几项大规模宣布和交易，在美国总统在阿拉伯联合酋长国的最后一段的发展实际上似乎有点嗡嗡声。但是，视觉效果和无需支付的费用正式欢迎和仪式活动肯定很有趣……⚡️Trump到达阿联酋（不要问我发生了什么事）pic.twitter.com/dtuspwf25w-战争监护仪（@warmonitors）5月15日，2025年5月15日，2025年5月15日，更值得注意的是，较为显着的言论是由1.4个trive trirliririon triillirion和其他…… Emirates.The White
EPA Targets Engine Start-Stop Systems In Cars... That Everyone Hates
EPA Targets Engine Start-Stop Systems In Cars... That Everyone HatesAuthored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),The Trump administration is taking aim at automatic engine start-stop systems—technology installed in millions of U.S. vehicles to reduce fuel use and emissions—with Environ
Professors Say They Need a Raise. They Probably Won't Get One.
教授布雷斯（Brace）又损失了一年。艾德里安·卢夫（Adrienne Lufaculty）的薪水已经有十多年的薪水尚未提高，而德拉科尼亚人（Draconian）则削减了更高的埃德（Ed）威胁要使情况变得更糟。
