Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
来自Cavallo等。 （2025年8月）：资料来源：Cavallo等。 （2025年8月2日）。一些与关税的影响一致的数据：图1：PCE-陶瓷缩放器（蓝色），PCE-Services Deflator（TAN），在日志2025M01中= 0来源：BEA。You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun series (light b
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
来自Cavallo等。 （2025年8月）：资料来源：Cavallo等。 （2025年8月2日）。一些与关税的影响一致的数据：图1：PCE-陶瓷缩放器（蓝色），PCE-Services Deflator（TAN），在日志2025M01中= 0来源：BEA。 You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun series (ligh
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年6月）－過去最低水準の6.2％で横ばい
On July 31, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, June 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - The unemployment rate was 6.2%, down from market forecast 1 (6.3%), the same
MTU Aero Engines: On track to meet its raised target for 2025
MTU Aero发动机在今年上半年关闭，收入和利润都大幅增加。 Adjusted revenue climbed to €4.1 billion, a 21% rise compared to €3.4 billion in the first half of 2024. Adjusted EBIT grew by 40% to €657 million, up from €470 million, and the adjusted EBIT margin improved […]The post MTU Aero Engines: On track to meet its raised ta
Air Canada Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results
蒙特利尔，2025年7月28日/ CNW/ - 加拿大航空今天报告了其第二季度的第二季度财务业绩。 “AirCanada’ssecond quarter 2025 results showcase the airline’s many strengths in the face of a challenging environment. We generated operating revenues exceeding$5.6 billion, up$113 millionfrom the previous year. Operating income was$418 million, wi
Tesla Shares Fall More Than 8% After Elon Musk Warns Of "Rough Quarters" Ahead
特斯拉股价下跌了8％以上。这是Tesla报告的Q2：调整后的EPS 40C与52c y/y，缺少估算值42C（GAAP EPS 33C与42c y/y）。 According to Bloomberg "investors may be relived it reported adjusted EPS just 2 cents below Wall Street estimates"Revenue $22.50 billion, -12% y/y, missing estimates of $22.64 billionGross margin 17.2% vs. 18% y/y, beatin
Tesla Earnings Preview: Profitability, Robotaxi, Optimus And Musk's 'America' Party In Focus
特斯拉的收益预览：盈利能力，Robotaxi，Optimus和Musk在Pocustesla中的“美国”党将在收盘时报告其2025年第二季度的收益。与高管（包括首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk））的电话会议定于美国东部时间下午5:30举行。这是期望的快照：分析师期望每股收益为0.44美元，从一年前的同一季度同一$ 0.52下降。 Estimize, which crowdsources financial estimates into a "whisper number" of sorts, is slightly more conservative with a $0.39 EPS
Two important danger signals in the June employment report
- 新政的民主党是本·卡塞尔曼（Ben Casellman），他是《纽约时报》上周五的就业报告的首席经济通讯员：我要与众不同。正如我周五在头条新闻下写的那样，这是一个几乎没有积极的报道 - 有一些重要的负面影响。让我指出今天的几个大问题。标题是147,000个工作岗位，过去一年的平均水平约为平均水平：所以一切都很好，对吗？并非如此之快。该147,000人分解了74,000个私人工作 + 63,000个教育（另外10,000个）。 In the past six years, only 3 other times have public sector jobs (including educat
July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
今天，在房地产新闻通讯中：七月冰抵押贷款监控器：房价继续冷却，房主风险的早期迹象摘录摘录：房屋价格的增长持续降低，根据ICE房价指数（HPI），房价的同比同比同比。 ICE HPI是重复的销售指数。 ICE报告了重复销售的中位价格变化。该指数在5月份同比增长1.6％，低于4月份的2.0％。 The early look at the June HPI shows a 1.3% YoY increase.• Mortgage rates in the high 6% range and growing inventory across the country continue to cool h
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年5月）－失業率はやや上昇したが、依然低位安定
On July 2, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, May 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - Unemployment rate rose 6.3%, up from the market forecast of 1 (6.2%) and rose f
Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range
Q2增强GDP的其他与贸易相关的扭曲。 [6月27日的估计]强调Goldman：我们将Q2 GDP跟踪估计值降低了0.1pp至 +3.9％（四分之一季度的年度化）。我们的第二季度国内最终销售估算为0％。 [June 27th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from
May Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Subdued" at 15.0 million SAAR
摘自J.D. Power：六月的新车辆销售在关税驱动到陈列室的逆转后脱落；零售销售额在2025年上半年摘录中上涨7.5％：新车总销售额的季节性调整年度税率（SAAR）预计为1,500万辆，从2024年6月开始增加了20万辆。从Haig Stoddard添加了OMDIA的Emphasis，在OMDIA上加上了OMDIA：6月份的美国光电销售缓慢（支付内容）（支付内容）。简短摘录：6月预计的大部分预期在季节性调整的年度税率中有12个月的低点是3月和4月的TARIFF PALL-ALEAD数量的抵消。但是，削弱需求也会加剧可负担性和更精简的库存。 Furthermore, a dent in the
New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 623 thousand.The previous three months were revised down.Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released jointly tod
Schedule for Week of June 22, 2025
本周的关键报告可能是新的和现有的房屋销售，第1季度GDP的第三次估计，5月的个人收入和支出以及四月的案件案件 - 案件 - 票房房屋价格指数。对于制造业，六月里士满和堪萨斯城美联储制造监视将被发布。FED的主席Powell在国会销售的半年度政策报告中，国会销售：6月10日，星期一 - 00-AM-AMS-SORTIN-BOND-SORTIS-AMSISSENT-AM-SORTIN-AM-SORTIN-AMSINGESS-AM-STROMENTING-AM-AM-AM-AMD-AMD-AMD AMD AMD。房地产经纪人（NAR）。 The consensus is for 3.95 mill
米住宅着工・許可件数（25年5月）－着工件数はコロナ禍で落ち込んだ20年５月以来の水準に減少
6月18日，美国人口普查局宣布了5月的住房建设数量和许可证的数量。 The number of housing construction starts (seasonally adjusted, annual rate) was significantly lower than the market forecast of 1.350,000 cases (seasonally adjusted, annual rate) in the previous month, which was revised upward from 1.392,000 cases, to 1.361,000 cas
'Early warning sign' as unemployment filings inch toward dangerous 'threshold': economists
分析师在观看有关失业福利的备案的申请，这是一个危险的“阈值”以上的240,000个申请。 Nguyen说，联邦工人的大规模裁员以及劳动力较少的劳动力市场正在推动“持续的索赔”（工人在失业后仍在寻找工作的工人）上周，至195600万。他说，这是自2021年11月以来达到的最高水平。阅读更多：“我们真的很麻烦”：众议院共和党领导人担心雷达（Radar）的命运“如果持续的索赔继续上升，现在是时候担心劳动力市场了。 It added that Thursday’s U.S. Labor Department data on “continuing claims” in the last week of
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年4月）－失業率は6％台前半の低水準で安定
On June 3, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, April 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - Unemployment rate was 6.2%, coinciding with market forecast 1 (6.2%), falling
June ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
今天，在房地产新闻通讯中：六月冰抵押贷款监控器：房价继续摘录摘录：根据ICE房价指数（HPI），房屋价格的增长继续慢速降低是房价同比同比的。 ICE HPI是重复的销售指数。 ICE报告了重复销售的中位价格变化。该指数4月份同比增长2.0％，低于3月份的2.4％。对5月HPI的早期研究表明，同比增长了1.6％。•库存水平的提高正在提供更多的选择和较柔和的价格，房主在今年春季购物的房主购物•每年的房价增长•4月份的年度 +2.0％从年初的 +3.6％从年初的 +3.6％降低，而iCe的价格增长范围是 +1.6％的速度增长，几乎是 +1.6％的增长率，几乎是 +1.6％的速度，几乎是 +1.6％的
