来自BOFA：自上次每周出版以来，3Q GDP跟踪从2.1％和BEA修订的2Q GDP从第三估算中从3.3％上升到3.8％。 [9月26日的评论]强调了Goldman：我们将我们的Q3 GDP跟踪估计提高了0.2pp，至 +2.8％（四分之一季度的年度化），反映了8月份的消费者支出更强大，并且在第一季度和第三季度之间的每月路径比以前比以前更为有利。我们的第三季度国内最终销售估算现在为 +1.9％。 [September 26th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP gr
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August
From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.2% Decrease in August• 0.2% decrease in total existing-home sales1 month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million.• 1.8% increase in sales year-over-year.• 1.53 million units: Total housing inventory, down 1.3% from July and
来自BOFA：自从我们上一次每周出版物以来，3Q GDP跟踪的Q/Q Saar和2Q GDP跟踪的第十至1.7％，为3.2％。这是我们跟踪更改的详细信息。 [9月12日的评论]强调Goldman：我们的第三季度GDP预测为 +1.6％（四分之一季度的年度化）。 [September 10th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.1 pe
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年7月）－若年失業率は過去最低水準を更新
On September 1, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, July 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - Unemployment rate was 6.2%, consistent with market forecast 1 (6.2%), fal
New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 652 thousand.The previous three months were revised up.Sales of new single-family houses in July 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 652,000, according to estimates released jointly tod
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
根据抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）每周的抵押贷款申请调查调查，截至2025年8月15日的一周。市场综合指数的，最新MBA每周的MBA每周抵押贷款申请减少了1.4％。在未经调整的基础上，该指数与上周相比下降了2％。再融资指数比上周下降了3％，比一年前同一周高23％。季节性调整的购买指数比一周前增长了0.1％。 The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortg
貿易統計25年7月－貿易収支は事前予想を大きく下回ったが、関税引き上げの影響本格化はこれから
根据财政部在8月20日发布的贸易统计数据，2023年7月的贸易余额赤字为1176亿日元，大大低于以前的市场预测（Quick Tally：盈余：2131亿日元，我们的预测盈余为2923亿日元）。连续第三个月，出口量比上一年（6月：上一年享受0.5％）下降了2.6％，但进口量急剧下降到上一年的7.5％（6月：上一年0.3％），导致贸易余额提高了51.118亿日元。当我们将出口分解为数量和价格时，出口年度为1.2％（6月：同比为2.5％），出口价格同比为3.7％（6月：同比的2.9％），同比为4.0％（6月：6月：13.1％的价格），年份为13.0％，年份为11.0％（6月）年满（6月：11.3％）
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 1.5% year-over-year
This is something I check occasionally.The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.5% (+4.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2025 as compared with April 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 277.3 billion vehicle miles.The seasonally adjusted
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
来自Cavallo等。 （2025年8月）：资料来源：Cavallo等。 （2025年8月2日）。一些与关税的影响一致的数据：图1：PCE-陶瓷缩放器（蓝色），PCE-Services Deflator（TAN），在日志2025M01中= 0来源：BEA。You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun series (light b
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
来自Cavallo等。 （2025年8月）：资料来源：Cavallo等。 （2025年8月2日）。一些与关税的影响一致的数据：图1：PCE-陶瓷缩放器（蓝色），PCE-Services Deflator（TAN），在日志2025M01中= 0来源：BEA。 You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives: Figure 1: BLS establishment nonfarm payroll (NFP) July series (bold blue), Jun series (ligh
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年6月）－過去最低水準の6.2％で横ばい
On July 31, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, June 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - The unemployment rate was 6.2%, down from market forecast 1 (6.3%), the same
MTU Aero Engines: On track to meet its raised target for 2025
MTU Aero发动机在今年上半年关闭，收入和利润都大幅增加。 Adjusted revenue climbed to €4.1 billion, a 21% rise compared to €3.4 billion in the first half of 2024. Adjusted EBIT grew by 40% to €657 million, up from €470 million, and the adjusted EBIT margin improved […]The post MTU Aero Engines: On track to meet its raised ta
Air Canada Reports Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results
蒙特利尔，2025年7月28日/ CNW/ - 加拿大航空今天报告了其第二季度的第二季度财务业绩。 “AirCanada’ssecond quarter 2025 results showcase the airline’s many strengths in the face of a challenging environment. We generated operating revenues exceeding$5.6 billion, up$113 millionfrom the previous year. Operating income was$418 million, wi
Tesla Shares Fall More Than 8% After Elon Musk Warns Of "Rough Quarters" Ahead
特斯拉股价下跌了8％以上。这是Tesla报告的Q2：调整后的EPS 40C与52c y/y，缺少估算值42C（GAAP EPS 33C与42c y/y）。 According to Bloomberg "investors may be relived it reported adjusted EPS just 2 cents below Wall Street estimates"Revenue $22.50 billion, -12% y/y, missing estimates of $22.64 billionGross margin 17.2% vs. 18% y/y, beatin
Tesla Earnings Preview: Profitability, Robotaxi, Optimus And Musk's 'America' Party In Focus
特斯拉的收益预览：盈利能力，Robotaxi，Optimus和Musk在Pocustesla中的“美国”党将在收盘时报告其2025年第二季度的收益。与高管（包括首席执行官埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk））的电话会议定于美国东部时间下午5:30举行。这是期望的快照：分析师期望每股收益为0.44美元，从一年前的同一季度同一$ 0.52下降。 Estimize, which crowdsources financial estimates into a "whisper number" of sorts, is slightly more conservative with a $0.39 EPS
Two important danger signals in the June employment report
- 新政的民主党是本·卡塞尔曼（Ben Casellman），他是《纽约时报》上周五的就业报告的首席经济通讯员：我要与众不同。正如我周五在头条新闻下写的那样，这是一个几乎没有积极的报道 - 有一些重要的负面影响。让我指出今天的几个大问题。标题是147,000个工作岗位，过去一年的平均水平约为平均水平：所以一切都很好，对吗？并非如此之快。该147,000人分解了74,000个私人工作 + 63,000个教育（另外10,000个）。 In the past six years, only 3 other times have public sector jobs (including educat
July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
今天，在房地产新闻通讯中：七月冰抵押贷款监控器：房价继续冷却，房主风险的早期迹象摘录摘录：房屋价格的增长持续降低，根据ICE房价指数（HPI），房价的同比同比同比。 ICE HPI是重复的销售指数。 ICE报告了重复销售的中位价格变化。该指数在5月份同比增长1.6％，低于4月份的2.0％。 The early look at the June HPI shows a 1.3% YoY increase.• Mortgage rates in the high 6% range and growing inventory across the country continue to cool h
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年5月）－失業率はやや上昇したが、依然低位安定
On July 2, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, May 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - Unemployment rate rose 6.3%, up from the market forecast of 1 (6.2%) and rose f
