Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?
是的，但这仅仅是因为它最近如此之高。图1：顶级面板 - 经济政策不确定性 - 贸易类别（蓝色）；底部面板 - 贸易政策不确定性（蓝色）。 NBER定义了峰值到衰退的日期阴影灰色。资料来源：policyunclentyty.com，iacoviello，nber。
■总结一月至3月期间欧元区的实际增长率比上一个财政年度为0.6％（年利化：2.5％），比10月至12月的期限显着加速（比上一个会计年度为0.3％，年满1.2％）。在关税加息之前的最后一次产量和出口提高了增长率，爱尔兰和德国的出口和制造业生产尤其增长。除了最后一刻的生产和出口外，复苏似乎持续缓慢。 4月的HICP（初步数字）表明，同比的总指数为1.9％，核心指数为2.3％，这两者的目标目标均约为2％。先前提高了基本通货膨胀率的服务通货膨胀和工资增长率也大大下降，目前，可以估计，欧洲央行的通货膨胀目标几乎已经实现。自2024年中期以来，欧洲央行已实施了降低的利率，随着解散的进展，其政策利率（存款设
'Rising worry': Trump's trade war is increasingly jeopardizing a major campaign promise
尽管唐纳德·特朗普（Div>）在2024年对民主党总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）的狭窄胜利远非远离他声称的“滑坡”，但他以大约1.5％的身份赢得了全国投票，他对通货膨胀的重视，经济使他越过了终点线。特朗普指责哈里斯（Harris）和当时的总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）的通货膨胀，他的消息传递工作：三个锈带国家（Rust Belt State）于2020年前往拜登（宾夕法尼亚州，密歇根州和威斯康星州）到达拜登（Biden），于2024年前往特朗普。但是，经济学家正在警告，但是，特朗普的陡峭关税可能会带来比贝德森时代更糟糕的通货膨胀。 And according to
Full support extended for Dr.Web products
June 9, 2025Full support has been extended for a number of Dr.Web products in accordance with Doctor Web’s lifecycle policy.The following products and solutions will enjoy full support until June 30, 2026. Dr.Web Desktop Security Suite: Dr.Web 12.0 for Windows desktops and laptops Dr.Web 12.0 for ma
This Week’s “Round-Up” Of Useful Posts & Articles On Ed Policy Issues
Here are some recent useful posts and articles on educational policy issues (You might also be interested in seeing all my “Best” lists related to education policy here): Red states tell colleges: Race and gender classes are out, civics in www.washingtonpost.com/education/20… [image or embed] — Larr
US jobs market slows down as businesses cope with Trump trade war uncertainty
May’s jobs report was dragged down by loss of 22,000 federal workers’ jobs as Doge cut positionsThe US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, a slowdown compared with recent months as American businesses cope with uncertainty around Donald Trump’s continuing trade war.After signs of a strong labor marke
Ayatollah Rejects US Nuclear Proposal, Vows Iran To Keep Enriching Uranium
Ayatollah拒绝了美国的核建议，誓言伊朗继续丰富铀兰，终于对美国提出的一项新核协议做出了反应“ 100％”反对伊斯兰共和国的利益。 This comes on the heels of a Truth Social post issued by President Trump which said in all caps: WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM.Khamenei as the Ayatollah, or top Shia religious cleric, has final say over all matters of
The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
，似乎不会很快结束，除非……图1：EPU - 贸易（蓝色，左尺度），epu（红色，右比例）。资料来源：policyunclentyty.com。
昨天的数据，来自Baker，Bloom和Davis：图1：EPU - 贸易（蓝色，左尺度），EPU（红色，右尺度）。资料来源：policyunclentyty.com。
Measured Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes
通过5/30的贝克，布鲁姆和戴维斯索引的数据图。图1：EPU贸易类别（蓝色，左尺度）和贸易政策不确定性指数（红色，右尺度）。资料来源：Baker，Bloom和Davis PolicyUnclententy.com和Caldara等。 tpud。
Futures Soar As Federal Trade Court Blocks Trump's Global Tariffs
未来飙升，因为联邦贸易法院阻止了特朗普的全球关税美国联邦法院，裁定特朗普总统没有根据经济紧急立法的授权来强加全球关税。 economic chaos.At least seven lawsuits are challenging the tariffs, the centerpiece of Trump’s trade policy.The ruling can now be appealed by the Trump administration in federal court.Just remind us again, what is it that the President can
Doug Burgum Warns Whoever Wins AI Race 'Controls The World'
道格·伯古姆（Div> Div）警告谁赢得了AI种族的控制权，由菲利普·韦格曼（Philip Wegmann）通过Realclearpolitics，Doug Burgum（philip Wegmann）撰写的世界，这是负责管理超过5.07亿英亩联邦拥有的土地的柔和的内政部秘书，她的恐惧被他的宗教信仰遭到了恐惧。他担心自由世界将在人工智能领域失去统治地位，随之而来的是未来。特朗普在今年春天早些时候说：“这绝对是至关重要的。”因此，这座白宫的陈述政策：“这就是钻，宝贝，钻。 Burgum痴迷的并发和长期任务：AI主导地位。 The former governor from fracking-fr
Some interesting links that I Tweeted about in the last week (I also post these on Mastodon, Threads, Newsmast, and Bluesky):Running a coffee maker with AI: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/05/the-tinkerers-who-opened-up-a-fancy-coffee-maker-to-ai-brewing/ But can it make a really good cup of te
David Sacks' Lieutenant Explains The Real Reason Why Trump's AI Deal With UAE Is A Yuge Win For AmericaSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, joined the Monday edition of TBPN to explain why the U.S.-UAE AI Partnership is a strategic victory for the United Sta
米住宅着工・許可件数（25年4月）－着工件数（前月比）は前月を上回った一方、市場予想は小幅に下回った
5月16日，美国人口普查局宣布了四月份的住房建设数量和许可证数量。住房建设的开始数量（季节性调整，年率）为1.361,000（上个月修订：1.339,000），超过了上个月的修订，其修订率从1.324,000个案例高于1.363,000个案例，而略低于1.363,000个案例（中间bloomberg tally）（图1，图1，图3）。施工许可证的数量是领先的指标（季节性调整后的年率），为1.412,000（上个月修订：1.481,000），低于1.467,000案例，比1.467,000案例略有修订（图2，图2，图5，图5）。从上个月（上个月：10.1％），住房开始数量的增长率为1.6％，从上
Air India lobbies to end IndiGo-Turkish p'ship - report
Air India (AI, Delhi International) has approached the government of India to step in and terminate the lease and codeshare partnership between IndiGo Airlines (6E, Delhi International) and Turkish Airlines (TK, Istanbul Airport), citing both business concerns and national security issues related to
NAHB: "Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence" in May
全国房屋建筑商协会（NAHB）报告说，住房市场指数（HMI）的比上个月为34岁。低于50的任何数字都表明，更多的建筑商将销售条件视为良好的销售条件。 However, 90% of the responses received in May were tabulated prior to the May 12 announcement that the United States and China agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days to allow trade talks to continue.Builder confidence in the mar
Economic Policy Uncertainty since 1985, Impact on GDP
每月数据，5月至13日。图1：epu news，平均每日数据（蓝色）。可以直至13号观察。日志EPU的标准偏差与每月数据有关，1985 - 2024年。 NBER定义了峰值到衰退的日期阴影灰色。资料来源：policyunclentyty.com，nber和作者的计算。自2月以来，日志EPU已移动大约两个标准偏差。根据[…]
