ユーロ圏失業率（2025年6月）－過去最低水準の6.2％で横ばい
On July 31, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, June 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - The unemployment rate was 6.2%, down from market forecast 1 (6.3%), the same
Two important danger signals in the June employment report
- 新政的民主党是本·卡塞尔曼（Ben Casellman），他是《纽约时报》上周五的就业报告的首席经济通讯员：我要与众不同。正如我周五在头条新闻下写的那样，这是一个几乎没有积极的报道 - 有一些重要的负面影响。让我指出今天的几个大问题。标题是147,000个工作岗位，过去一年的平均水平约为平均水平：所以一切都很好，对吗？并非如此之快。该147,000人分解了74,000个私人工作 + 63,000个教育（另外10,000个）。 In the past six years, only 3 other times have public sector jobs (including educat
July ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool, Early Signs of Homeowner Risk Emerge
今天，在房地产新闻通讯中：七月冰抵押贷款监控器：房价继续冷却，房主风险的早期迹象摘录摘录：房屋价格的增长持续降低，根据ICE房价指数（HPI），房价的同比同比同比。 ICE HPI是重复的销售指数。 ICE报告了重复销售的中位价格变化。该指数在5月份同比增长1.6％，低于4月份的2.0％。 The early look at the June HPI shows a 1.3% YoY increase.• Mortgage rates in the high 6% range and growing inventory across the country continue to cool h
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年5月）－失業率はやや上昇したが、依然低位安定
On July 2, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, May 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - Unemployment rate rose 6.3%, up from the market forecast of 1 (6.2%) and rose f
Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range
Q2增强GDP的其他与贸易相关的扭曲。 [6月27日的估计]强调Goldman：我们将Q2 GDP跟踪估计值降低了0.1pp至 +3.9％（四分之一季度的年度化）。我们的第二季度国内最终销售估算为0％。 [June 27th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from
May Vehicle Forecast: Sales "Subdued" at 15.0 million SAAR
摘自J.D. Power：六月的新车辆销售在关税驱动到陈列室的逆转后脱落；零售销售额在2025年上半年摘录中上涨7.5％：新车总销售额的季节性调整年度税率（SAAR）预计为1,500万辆，从2024年6月开始增加了20万辆。从Haig Stoddard添加了OMDIA的Emphasis，在OMDIA上加上了OMDIA：6月份的美国光电销售缓慢（支付内容）（支付内容）。简短摘录：6月预计的大部分预期在季节性调整的年度税率中有12个月的低点是3月和4月的TARIFF PALL-ALEAD数量的抵消。但是，削弱需求也会加剧可负担性和更精简的库存。 Furthermore, a dent in the
New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 623 thousand.The previous three months were revised down.Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released jointly tod
Schedule for Week of June 22, 2025
本周的关键报告可能是新的和现有的房屋销售，第1季度GDP的第三次估计，5月的个人收入和支出以及四月的案件案件 - 案件 - 票房房屋价格指数。对于制造业，六月里士满和堪萨斯城美联储制造监视将被发布。FED的主席Powell在国会销售的半年度政策报告中，国会销售：6月10日，星期一 - 00-AM-AMS-SORTIN-BOND-SORTIS-AMSISSENT-AM-SORTIN-AM-SORTIN-AMSINGESS-AM-STROMENTING-AM-AM-AM-AMD-AMD-AMD AMD AMD。房地产经纪人（NAR）。 The consensus is for 3.95 mill
米住宅着工・許可件数（25年5月）－着工件数はコロナ禍で落ち込んだ20年５月以来の水準に減少
6月18日，美国人口普查局宣布了5月的住房建设数量和许可证的数量。 The number of housing construction starts (seasonally adjusted, annual rate) was significantly lower than the market forecast of 1.350,000 cases (seasonally adjusted, annual rate) in the previous month, which was revised upward from 1.392,000 cases, to 1.361,000 cas
'Early warning sign' as unemployment filings inch toward dangerous 'threshold': economists
分析师在观看有关失业福利的备案的申请，这是一个危险的“阈值”以上的240,000个申请。 Nguyen说，联邦工人的大规模裁员以及劳动力较少的劳动力市场正在推动“持续的索赔”（工人在失业后仍在寻找工作的工人）上周，至195600万。他说，这是自2021年11月以来达到的最高水平。阅读更多：“我们真的很麻烦”：众议院共和党领导人担心雷达（Radar）的命运“如果持续的索赔继续上升，现在是时候担心劳动力市场了。 It added that Thursday’s U.S. Labor Department data on “continuing claims” in the last week of
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年4月）－失業率は6％台前半の低水準で安定
On June 3, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, April 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - Unemployment rate was 6.2%, coinciding with market forecast 1 (6.2%), falling
June ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool
今天，在房地产新闻通讯中：六月冰抵押贷款监控器：房价继续摘录摘录：根据ICE房价指数（HPI），房屋价格的增长继续慢速降低是房价同比同比的。 ICE HPI是重复的销售指数。 ICE报告了重复销售的中位价格变化。该指数4月份同比增长2.0％，低于3月份的2.4％。对5月HPI的早期研究表明，同比增长了1.6％。•库存水平的提高正在提供更多的选择和较柔和的价格，房主在今年春季购物的房主购物•每年的房价增长•4月份的年度 +2.0％从年初的 +3.6％从年初的 +3.6％降低，而iCe的价格增长范围是 +1.6％的速度增长，几乎是 +1.6％的增长率，几乎是 +1.6％的速度，几乎是 +1.6％的
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.1% below 2022 peak
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 PeakExcerpt: It has been almost 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for some readers!In the March Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted Natio
Repeat home sales through March confirm continued deceleration of price increases
- 由新政的民主党周，现有的房屋销售报告显示，约伊价格的持续减速提高到1.8％，这表明房屋市场正在进行的重新平衡。 This morning’s repeat home sales reports from the FHFA and S&P Case Shiller confirmed that deceleration and ongoing rebalancing.On a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through March, the Case-Shiller national index (light b
来自BOFA：自从我们上一次每周出版物以来，我们的2Q和1Q GDP跟踪分别下降了十分之二，分别为 +2.0％Q/Q Saar和-0.5％Q/Q Saar。 [5月23日的估计]强调了高盛（Goldman）：我们将Q2 GDP跟踪估计值保持不变，为 +2.1％（四分之一季度），我们的第二季度国内最终销售预测未改变为0％。我们将过去的季度跟踪估计值保持在-0.5％。 [May 23rd estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjuste
Q2 GDP Tracking: Low-to-Mid 2%
来自BOFA：我们在四月零售销售印刷后启动了2Q GDP跟踪。与我们的正式预测Q/Q Saar相比，它上升了十分之一，达到2.2％Q/Q Saar。同时，自上一次每周出版的出版物（5月16日估计）以来，我们的1Q GDP跟踪将其提高到-0.3％Q/Q Saar：从高盛（Goldman）加重了强调：我们将0.1pp的Q2 GDP跟踪估计降低到 +2.1％（四分之一比四分之一的年度销售），而我们的Q2国内最终销售量则降低了 +0.1％。我们上季度的GDP跟踪估计值为-0.5％。 [May 16th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNo
英国ＧＤＰ（2025年1-3月期）－前期比では0.7％に加速
On May 15, the UK's National Statistics Office (ONS) published its first quarterly estimate and monthly GDP, with the results as follows: [Real GDP for the January-March 2025 period, seasonally adjusted)] - 0.7% from the previous quarter, upwards from forecast 1 (0.6%) and upwards from the previous
ユーロ圏失業率（2025年3月）－失業率は6.2％で横ばい推移
On May 2, the European Commission's Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced the unemployment rate in the eurozone, with the results as follows: [Eurozone unemployment rate (20 countries, March 2025, seasonally adjusted)] - The unemployment rate was 6.2%, up from the market forecast of 1 (6.1%), the s
