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● In the first 15 years of the EU mandate, SAFs will barely cover for the surge in energy demand compared to 2019, and will start replacing fossil fuel durably only from 2040 onwards.● In 2049, the sector could be burning as much fossil kerosene as it did 2023, even when using 42% of SAF, as required by the RefuelEU regulation.● In 2050, planes taking-off from EU airports will still burn 21.8 Mtoe (21.1 Mt) of fossil kerosene, which is almost half of what was consumed in 2019.This level of consumption would require the yearly extraction of 1.9 billion barrels of crude oil - based on EU refineries' average yield of 9% in 2022 5 .
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