* 西北大学凯洛格管理学院金融系（电子邮件：sean.higgins@kellogg.northwestern.edu）。埃丝特·迪弗洛 (Esther Duflo) 是本文的共同编辑。 I am Grateful to Paul Gertler, Ulrike Malmendier, Fred Finan, and David Sraer for Guidance and Support, As Bibek Adhikari, David Atkin, Pierre Bachas, Giorgia Barboni, Matteo Benetton, Josh Blumenstock, zerek brat-gold, Ben Charoenwong ( Discussant ) , Anthony Defusco, Carola Frydman, Virginia Gianinazzi ( Discussant ) Sylvan Herskowitz, Bob Hunt , Seema Jayachandran, John Loeser, Nora Lustig, Ted Miguel, luu Nguyen, Waldo Ojeda, Jacopo Prabby ( Dis- Cussant , Michael nt ) , Betty Sadoulet, Emmanuel Saez, Discusant , Gabriel Zucman, and Seminar Partipants, Atlanta Fed, Bank of Israel, Bocconi, Cambridge, Cepr, Dartmouth, GSU-RFS, idas, , Inter-American Development Bank, Illinois, London School of Economics, neudc, northwestern, Nyu, Penn, Princeton, Princeton, Sfs Cavalcade, Stanford, UC Diego , UNC, University of San Francisco, UT Austin, Wfa, World Bank, Wvu, and Yale y-rise for comments that helply improve the paper.我感谢 Saul Knight、Arthur Charleston、Nils Lieber、Jora Li、Xinghuan Luo、Eric Molina、Anah Kings、Carlos Restituyo 和 Angelyna Ye 提供的研究协助。我感谢墨西哥以下机构的官员提供数据访问并回答问题。墨西哥银行：Marco Acosta、Biliana Alexandrova、Sara Castellanos、Miguel Angel Diaz、Lorenza Martinez、Othon Moreno、Samuel Navarro、Axel Vargas 和 Rafael Villar。 Bansefi: Virgil Andrade, Benjamin Chacon, Miguel Angel Lara, Oscar Moreno, Ramon Sanchez, and Ana Lilia Urquieta. CNBV: Rodrigo Aguirre, Alvaro Melendez Martinez, Diana Radilla, and Gustavo Salaiz. INEGI：Gerardo Leyva 和 Natalia Volkow。繁荣：Martha Cuevas、Armando Geronimo、Rogelio Grados、Raul Perez、Rodolfo Sanchez、Jose Solis 和 Carla Vazquez。本研究项目中表达的结论由我作为作者独自负责，并且不属于国家统计和地理信息系统 (INEGI) 的官方统计数据。非常感谢墨西哥银行夏季研究项目的资助。 IRB 批准：IPA 00006083、西北大学 STU00217227 和加州大学伯克利分校 2018-02-10796。 † 请访问 https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201952 获取更多材料和作者披露声明。