A. 背景 ................................................................................................................................ 8 B. 21 世纪跨领域核威慑 .............................................................................................. 9 1. 历史视角 ........................................................................................................................ 9 2. 解读威慑概念 ............................................................................................................ 10 a. 报复性威慑（或惩罚性威慑） ............................................................................. 10 b. 拒绝性威慑 ............................................................................................................. 12 c. 核红线的作用 ............................................................................................................. 12 d. “始终/永不”的困境 ................................................................................................................ 13 3. 网络空间趋势 ...................................................................................................................... 14 4. 网络领域的威慑 ................................................................................................................ 15 5. 太空领域趋势 ...................................................................................................................... 17 6. 跨域考量：网络和太空领域对核威慑的影响 ............................................................................................. 18 7. 跨域依赖关系 ...................................................................................................................... 18 8. 跨域威慑 ............................................................................................................................. 19 二、当前威胁 ............................................................................................................................. 21