假设和限制免责声明 ................................................................................................................................1 缩略词列表 ................................................................................................................................................1 1.0 执行摘要 ..............................................................................................................................................1-1 1.1 利益相关者的意见 ......................................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 计划的经济分析 ......................................................................................................................................1-1 1.3 STT 和 STX 的最低成本计划 .............................................................................................................1-5 1.4 优化计划与常规成本 .............................................................................................................1-7 1.5 竞争性扩张计划之间的比较 (P0-P5) .............................................................................................1-8 1.6 敏感性案例 .............................................................................................................................................1-11 1.7 结合计划经济性、可靠性和环境特征 .............................................................................................1-12 1.8 建议 .............................................................................................................................................1-16 2.0 简介................................................................................................................................................2-1 2.1 IRP 流程...................................................................................................................................................2-1 2.2 利益相关者流程...................................................................................................................................2-5 3.0 主要 IRP 假设......................................................................................................................................3-1 3.1 通货膨胀和成本上涨率....................................................................................................................3-1 3.2 融资假设......................................................................................................................................3-1 3.3 现值折现率.............................................................................................................................3-1 3.4 平准化固定收费率.............................................................................................................................3-2 3.5 业主成本.............................................................................................................................................3-2 3.6 施工期间利息利率.............................................................................................................................3-1................................................3-4 3.7 负荷预测...................................................................................................................................................3-4 3.8 负荷形态...................................................................................................................................................3-5 3.9 规划备用标准...................................................................................................................................3-8 3.10 旋转备用和频率调节......................................................................................................................3-8 3.11 可再生能源目标和排放成本......................................................................................................3-11 3.12 需求侧管理和能源效率计划....................................................................................................3-12 3.13 燃料价格预测................................................................................................................................3-12 3.13.1 基准燃料价格预测................................................................................................................3-12 3.13.2 高燃料预测................................................................................................................................3-14 3.13.3 低燃料预测................................................................................................................................3-16 3.14 现有机组特性和退役假设.................................................3-17 4.0 扩建规划模型和候选发电选项 ......................................................................4-1 4.1 扩建规划和生产成本计算方法 ..............................................................................4-1 4.2 候选发电机组 .........................................................................................................................4-1 4.2.1 候选传统技术 .........................................................................................................4-2 4.3 候选可再生能源技术概述 .............................................................................................4-6 4.3.1 太阳能发电 .........................................................................................................................4-611 可再生能源目标和排放成本......................................................................................................3-11 3.12 需求侧管理和能源效率计划....................................................................................................3-12 3.13 燃料价格预测........................................................................................................................3-12 3.13.1 基准燃料价格预测.......................................................................................................3-12 3.13.2 高燃料价格预测....................................................................................................................3-14 3.13.3 低燃料价格预测....................................................................................................................3-16 3.14 现有机组特性和退役假设....................................................................................................3-17 4.0 扩建规划模型和候选发电方案....................................................................................................4-1 4.1 扩建规划和生产成本计算方法.............................................................................................4-1 4.2 候选发电机组.............................................................................................................................4-1 4.2.1 候选传统技术................................................................................4-2 4.3 候选可再生能源技术概述 ......................................................................................4-6 4.3.1 太阳能发电 ..........................................................................................................................4-611 可再生能源目标和排放成本......................................................................................................3-11 3.12 需求侧管理和能源效率计划....................................................................................................3-12 3.13 燃料价格预测........................................................................................................................3-12 3.13.1 基准燃料价格预测.......................................................................................................3-12 3.13.2 高燃料价格预测....................................................................................................................3-14 3.13.3 低燃料价格预测....................................................................................................................3-16 3.14 现有机组特性和退役假设....................................................................................................3-17 4.0 扩建规划模型和候选发电方案....................................................................................................4-1 4.1 扩建规划和生产成本计算方法.............................................................................................4-1 4.2 候选发电机组.............................................................................................................................4-1 4.2.1 候选传统技术................................................................................4-2 4.3 候选可再生能源技术概述 ......................................................................................4-6 4.3.1 太阳能发电 ..........................................................................................................................4-63 候选可再生能源技术概述................................................................................................4-6 4.3.1 太阳能发电...................................................................................................................4-63 候选可再生能源技术概述................................................................................................4-6 4.3.1 太阳能发电...................................................................................................................4-6