商业周期指标加2月的工作

Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), February SPF median (light blue), NY Fed nowcast of 2/28 for Q1 (blue square), GDPNow nowcast of 3/6 (red triangle), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2/28 to GS estimate (pink square), Goldman Sachs tracking of 3/6 (light green inverted三角形),全部以q/q ar,%。 […]

来源:经济浏览器
Ballpark adjustment to GDPNow:Figure 1: GDP (bold black), February SPF median (light blue), NY Fed nowcast of 2/28 for Q1 (blue square), GDPNow nowcast of 3/6 (red triangle), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2/28 to GS estimate (pink square), Goldman Sachs tracking of 3/6 (light green inverted三角形),全部以q/q ar,%。资料来源:BEA,费城美联储,纽约美联储,亚特兰大美联储,高盛和作者的计算。调整后的GDPNOW增长(Q/Q AR)为 +0.55%,基本上仍然高于零。

调整到GDPNOW的球场:

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), February SPF median (light blue), NY Fed nowcast of 2/28 for Q1 (blue square), GDPNow nowcast of 3/6 (red triangle), Alternative GDPNow holding import effect of 2/28 to GS estimate (pink square), Goldman Sachs tracking of 3/6 (light green inverted triangle), all in q/q AR, %.资料来源:BEA,费城美联储,纽约美联储,亚特兰大美联储,高盛和作者的计算。

图1:

调整后的GDPNOW生长(Q/Q AR)为 +0.55%,基本上仍高于零。